Madrid has threatened to veto Catalan accession to the EU, and reportedly has even studied the possibility of a military occupation of Catalonia in order to forestall independence.
“However it was reported in the Spanish media that after defence chiefs presented their plans to the Spanish government, the idea was ruled out due to the excessive cost.
It was also felt that Catalan resistance to Spanish military occupation could result in violence and loss of life which would do incalculable damage to Spain’s international reputation.”
“The Spanish government believes it can cast fear and doubt among Catalan people by arguing that an independent state would see it outside the EU and isolated from the international community. But its argument is not based on solid ground.”
Eu Observer. September 30, 2013. Would an independent Catalonia remain in the EU? Read the article here.
Newsnet Scotland. August 4, 2013. Catalonia may hold indy ref days before Scotland votes. Read the article here.
Comments of some of our catalan friends in Facebook:
Jaume Canaves. Attorney. Washington D.C. August 5, 2013.
It would take about 200,000 ground troops to effectively occupy and control a territory the size of Catalonia, which is about twice the size of the entire Spanish armed forces (and that’s including air force and navy)… Casualties could happen, and they would be all over the news. The opposition parties in Spain (socialists and communists) have signaled their disagreement with respect to any military solutions, so the Partido Popular government would be alone, facing internal opposition, and having to ponder whether they actually want to risk having their a$$e$ nailed to the wall by the International Criminal Court. If tourism collapses, if income from Catalonia collapses, if exports to Europe stop (not unlikely since most have to cross the Catalan and Basque borders), multinationals will not be happy and will be lobbying like crazy to solve the crisis.
Josep L. Guallar Esteve, Catalan Assembly USA. North Carolina. August 5, 2013.
This is the most interesting paragraph:
“According to opinion polls, independence currently enjoys a massive lead amongst the Catalan population. The most recent poll from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió shows Yes enjoys the support of 55.6%, with No on just 23.4%. 20.4% said they would abstain, did not know, or would not give a response. Translated into a referendum, this would produce a Yes vote of 70.4%.”